Pfizer (PFE) is set to see organic growth accelerate next year with new revenue drivers including Ibrance for breast cancer and easing pressures from patent expirations, Morgan Stanley said on Tuesday.
The investment bank resumed covered of Pfizer with an overweight rating and a $48 price target. They estimate a three-year compound annual growth rate, or CAGR, in revenue of 6% and earnings per share advances of 11%, up from the 2015 to estimated 2020 CAGR of 2% for revenue and 7% for EPS.
“We project accelerating growth starting next year, driven by Ibrance and pipeline,” said equity analyst David Risinger. “We expect Ibrance to succeed in adjuvant (early stage) breast cancer in late 2020 due to its demonstrated efficacy in late stage breast cancer and expert opinions on likelihood of success.”
Shares of the New York-based drugmaker were up 1.1% on Tuesday afternoon.
The last major patent expiration for several years is Lyrica for nerve and muscle pain in the US this month, meaning growth should improve in the second half of next year after the loss annualizes, the analyst said.
They’re projecting 2023 estimated new launch sales of $9.5 billion, including Ibrance adjuvant early stage breast cancer sales of $4 billion and pipeline sales of $5.5 billion, the biggest of which is $3.1 billion for tafamidis, used in treatment of a rare and fatal type of heart disease.
“Pfizer’s pipeline is also filling up, including rare diseases and auto-immune candidates,” Risinger said. The growing pipeline which “could drive additional investor enthusiasm about accelerating growth prospects ahead.”